|Alpine Weather Report|
ISSUED: Wednesday January 15, 2020 10:15 MST
SYNOPSIS: A weak upper disturbance will continue northeastward across the area with occasional snow this morning and early afternoon. Partial clearing is possible in its wake later this afternoon. Periods of snow should develop mid or late evening and continue into Thursday night as a large frontal system tracks inland from the coast of Washington-Oregon. The snow should ease late Thursday night. An Arctic airmass should gradually retreat eastward, the temperatures should trend slightly milder-not as cold however a tightening pressure gradient is still a threat for significant wind and blowing snow at times.
FREEZING LEVEL: Surface.
FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):
TODAY: Cloudy with occasional snow during the morning & early afternoon, accumulation from 3 to 6 cm. Cloudy with possible sunny periods mid-late afternoon. Windy at times, high wind chill possible. High temperature near -13.
TONIGHT: Cloudy, possible early evening clear breaks. Snow developing mid or late evening, accumulation from 12 to 20 cm. Windy at times, possible blowing snow. Low near -17, trending milder overnight.
THURSDAY: Periods of snow, possible afternoon snow showers. Accumulation from 8 to 15 cm. Windy at times, possible blowing snow. High near -10.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with occasional snow or a few snow showers, easing to a few flurries late overnight. Light to moderate accumulation, possible 8 to 18 cm. Low near -12.
FRIDAY: A few morning flurries. Cloudy with possible sunny periods and a slight chance of flurries during the afternoon. High near -6. A few flurries or periods of snow possibly developing late Friday night.
SATURDAY and SATURDAY NIGHT: Periods of snow. Moderate to heavy accumulation possible. Windy at times. High near -4.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with possible sunny breaks and a 60% chance of flurries. High near -2.
CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair confidence. Low density snow should prevail (until the local wind increases) which once again complicates the local snowfall predictions. The current band of (generally light) snow should exit to the north of Fernie near or shortly past noon, there’s some uncertainty of the local sky condition in its wake. The computer models are trending toward an earlier arrival of the next Pacific system, snow developing near 8 PM this evening, the heavier rate of fall overnight. The guidance struggles with the positioning of the trailing cold front Thursday night, it could stall in the vicinity of Fernie for a re-intensification of snow Thursday evening and a delayed easing of the snow overnight-Friday morning. Airmass instability could result in highly variable snow showers Thursday afternoon and evening. The more significant wind could remain just east of Fernie today, the approaching system is more threatening for locally increased wind tonight and Thursday. A small break between disturbances is now timed for Friday afternoon. Another Pacific system is suggested to begin to push inland late Friday night or early Saturday, its timing and moisture content are questionable.